Sue Supriano : Hi, everybody. My name's Sue Supriano. And, I'm really happy today, to be talking with Richard Heinberg. And, Richard and I have spoken before, about peak oil. His first book - I don't know if it was your first book, but -
Richard Heinberg: It was actually my fifth book
Sue Supriano : Oh, okay.
Richard Heinberg: Yeah, the last one was, "The Party's Over: Oil, War and The Fate of Industrial Societies". And, the new book is, "Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post Carbon World".
Sue Supriano : And, it's a great book. Just as "The Party's Over". And, one of the great things about it is; it's so short. I hate to be so superficial. But, it's really important to me. And, I'm sure, to alot of people. Because, we're all so busy.
Richard Heinberg: Well, "The Party's Over", was not a terribly long book. It's about a three hundred page book. But, it's a good overview of the whole oil industry. And, the whole independence and energy issue, in general. Especially, peak oil. It's a real primer on peak oil. The new book, "Powerdown" , is shorter. It's, of course, updated. It has the latest information on peak oil. But, it's also much more about policies and actions.
Sue Supriano : Well, and we're going to have enough time to talk here. So, that we're going to focus on this first interview. Because, we're also going to do another one. We're going to focus on the issues, the problems. Because, peak oil; people might not even know what that means, right off the bat. Because, people are so - tend to be - many people. I don't want to insult any listener here, but, you know, so many people are really uninformed about what's happening. In my experience, just about everybody I talk to. And, I live here, in Berkeley, where people are more educated, than many places. 'Cause, you have independent media here. So, Richard, we're going to focus on this interview - as I said, about what the issues are. The challenges, the problems that we need to take action about. And, change our lives. So, what is peak oil?
Richard Heinberg: It's when supply is no longer able to meet demand. Now, peak of oil production; is something that's happened many times before in history. This is not something - not just a prediction of something that's never happened before. And, it may or may not happen. The U.S. experienced and oil production peak in 1970. Prior to that time, the U.S. was the world's foremost oil producing country. In fact, we were even the world's foremost oil exporting country, for many decades. But, after U.S. oil production achieved it's all time peak in 1970 '71; it started going downhill. And, it's been going downhill, virtually, ever since. Nobody really anticipated this; except for one petroleum geologist, by the name of M. King Hubbert. But, after it happened; more and more people started getting interested in this phenomenon. It turns out that extracting oil from any given well, or province, or country; follows a kind of bell shaped curve. We get the cheap, easy stuff out first. And then, when about half the oil is gone; the rate of oil extraction, tends to decline. And then, what's left, is the more difficult to access, lower quality crude; that takes more energy to get out of the ground. And, that's essentially what's responsible for the peaking phenomenon.
Sue Supriano : So, I often say; oil is running out. And, somebody corrected me about that. And so, when other people say that oil is running out; I say, well not exactly. But, for all intents and purposes; in terms of how it's going to affect us, it's kind of like, oil is running out.
Richard Heinberg: Well, yeah. Oil has been running out; ever since we took the first barrel out of the ground. But, when we talk about peak oil; we're not saying that, in fact, the last barrel is going to be pulled out of the ground, any time soon. Far from it. We're only at about the half way point. So, that we've extracted about 950 billion barrels of oil, so far, in the last 150 years. And, there is about a trillion barrels of oil, left to extract. The problem is, the rate of extraction is about to peak and decline. And, the significance of that, is that we've depended upon increasing cheap amounts of oil. To provide cheap energy, for an expanding, ever growing, industrial society with growing economies. Now, once we no longer have that cheap, easy fuel for our economies, especially transportation; it's going to be very difficult to maintain economic growth. The whole idea of economic growth, is something that has appeared just in the last two or three hunded years. During this amazing, very unusual period of human history. Where we've every year, had more and more resources. And, especially, having more energy available. But, that's going to change. And, when it changes, it's going to be as dramatic a transition; as when we experienced, going from medieval society into industrial society. Basically, industrialism, as a way of life; is about to come to an end.
Sue Supriano : Well, I just want to say; in terms of what you're talking about. That cheap oil. People get confused. Even those who try to look into it; they get very confused by the figures. And, they all say; there's lots of oil, still. And, it's going to be forever. So, folks, I just want you to notice; that's just the deal. I mean, there may be lots of oil there. But, the point is; it's too expensive to get. So, it's kind of irrelevant.
Richard Heinberg: Right. People ask sometimes, about the Canadian Tar Sands, for example. There's a vast amount of hydro-carbon stuff there, under the Alberta soil. Literally, hundreds of billions of barrels, equivalent of hydro-carbon atoms. But, there in a form that's expensive and difficult. And, environmentally ruinous, to get out of the ground. So, at what rate can we get the Canadian Tar Sands out? Well, currently, it's about a million barrels a day. Which is nothing to sneeze at. That's good for Canada. It's one of Canada's main energy sources. But, we're using 82 million barrels a day of oil, worldwide, right now. And, the best estimates are, that Canadian Tar Sands production could probably only be ramped up to about two million barrels a day, for purely physical, geological reasons. It takes too much fresh water and natural gas to produce oil from the Canadian Tar Sands. And, those are limited resources. So, it's like that, with one story after another. Unless, you really begin to look into the oil industry; you realize there are serious constraints. We have not been finding that much oil, lately. As a matter of fact; global oil discovery, peaked in the early 1960's. And, it's been going downhill ever since. Of course, you have to find the stuff, before you can extract it. And, at this point; we're finding about one, new barrel of oil, every year. For about every five or six we extract and burn. So, you can't keep doing that forever. Before you do, in fact, start running out.
Sue Supriano : Wow, I think I'm going to have to repeat that. One, new barrel of oil a year, for every five or six we're extracting. Got that. So, I want to say, too; that I know something about Alaska. And, how the environment is so ruined, for the people who live there. And then, the amount of oil it's gotten, is for about a week.
Richard Heinberg: Well, one sign of how low the global gas tank is running; is in fact, we are having to turn to such dangerous and difficult places, increasing. To get our oil. In the early decades of this century, we were getting oil from nice convenient places. Like Texas and Oklahoma, and Southern California. And, Pennsylvania, even. And now, we're getting it from offshore derricks; that drill deep into the rock strata, underneath the oceans. That's a very expensive way to get oil out of the ground. We're also getting more and more oil, from politically sensitive places. The Caspian Sea region. Places like Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. And, increasingly, places that have the remaining oil, are becoming politically destabilized. I'm thinking now of countries in West Africa, Sudan, Colombia. Where people are fighting over control of their own nation's resources. So, the first half of the curve, which is easy oil; is now a thing of the past. And, what's left is; going to be, oil that will not only be expensive. But, it's oil that I'm afraid, is fought over, increasingly.
Sue Supriano : Well, we're already seeing that. It seems pretty clear that Iraq and Afghanistan right now. And, things can possibly, hope not, to possibly come in the wars that the United States is proclaiming; unless we stop this madness, have to do with oil?
Richard Heinberg: Well, our current vice president, Dick Cheney; is of course, the former CEO of Halliburton, the world's foremost oil services company. And, he have a speech in London, in 1999 to the Petroleum Institute, while he still was CEO of Halliburton. Cheney said, at that time; that global oil demand, is growing at a rate of about two or three percent a year. Meanwhile, depletion from existing resources, is taking a bite of about six million barrels a day. So, we have two million barrels a day, needed for new demand. Then, about six to seven million barrels a day, every year is needed just to replace depletion of current production capacity. So, add those together; we need about a new eight million barrels a day, every year, just to stay even. He said, by 2010, we will have to replace about six out of ten barrels a day of production, current; with new production, from new discoveries. But, he said also; that's going to be very difficult, if not impossible to achieve. So, he was essentially - when he was speaking to the Petroleum Industry, when he said this. But, he was essentially saying; we are in an impossible situation. Because, by 2010, we will need much more oil, than will actually be available. Now, only a couple of years later, Cheney turns up as vice president fo the United States. And, the very first thing he does, is convene this secret energy task force. We don't know what they talked about. But, a few papers have been released, through Freedom Of Information Act requests. And, those papers are essentially maps of the oil producing regions of Iraq. So, there are a number of documents, these included, which clearly suggest that Cheney, who is effectively the Energy Policy point man for the current administration. Also, foreign policy. Energy policy and foreign policy. When he took office, he already understood the profoundness - the neccessity for the U.S. to procure more energy supplies in the future. And, he also understood that Iraq has the world's second foremost reserves. And, what's more important, the reserves of Iraq; have hardly been touched, for the last twenty years. Other countries of major oil reserves, have been largely depleted. Even Saudi Arabia, which has the world's foremost reserves; in fact, is not in nearly such good shape. Because, the great Gwar Field, which produces about sixty percent of Saudi production; is itself, about to peak. And, this is known from a number of studies, which have shown that Gwar is currently being - currently in second production. They're using injection of about six million barrels a day of salt water, in order to maintain pressure in the field. And, no one knows how long this can be continued. At some point, probably in the fairly near future; Gwar, which is the world's largest oil field in Saudi Arabia, is going to begin it's decline. And, it will be a fairly rapid decline, because of the extraordinary measures they've been using to maintain pressure in that field. When that happens, Saudi Arabia is no longer going to be able to be the swing producer. And, Iraq, by default, will be the most import oil producing country on the planet. So, what have we done. We've established seven new, permanent military bases in that country. And, we have no intention of leaving. This is part of the long term strategy. This is not just a whim on the part of George W. Bush to invade Iraq. This is a long term strategy, that is at it's core - I hate to say it, a bipartisan strategy. It's not just the Republicans.
Sue Supriano : Yeah, well we could go off on so many tangents here. I mean, they're not really tangents, but we don't have time to do it. Like, Halliburton making all this money. And, all this overcharging. And, all this - like, really scandalous stuff going on in Iraq. And, 9/11 itself. Who and why 9/11 happened. And, find out who perpetrated it. But, we won't go into that, right now. Unless, you want to say something, Richard Heinberg?
Richard Heinberg: Yeah. We have to understand, that this is a watershed event that is approaching us. When global oil production peaks; the whole world will change. All of the economic ground beneath us, is going to shift. And, this is entirely predictable. People like Dick Cheney, clearly understand that this is coming our way. And, the U.S. economy is teetering on a knife edge, right now. Partly, because of the tremendous rate of U.S. debt. But, this has been run up - or, a great proportion of it has been run up; just in the last four years, during this administration. And, I think this is also a part of the same strategy. Effectively, to bankrupt the U.S., and create the conditions for a new World War. Because, once the world is past global oil production peak; the gloves are going to come off. And, swords are being sharpened, even as we speak. There is increasing geopolitical competition, between U.S., Russia, and China, and Europe; over the world's remaining oil supplies. China and the U.S, which are locked in a kind of deadly embrace. With the U.S. importing so many manufactured products from China. And, China then taking the income from those sales and reinvesting them in the U.S. economy. Enabling the U.S. to run up trade deficits and also huge government deficits. But then, the U.S. and China competing for the same oil supplies, globally. Oil from the Middle East. From Central Asia. From Western Africa. And even from places like Venezuela. China and U.S. companies are going after exactly the same resources. And, that competition is severe now. But, I think it's going to become deadly, in the near future.
Sue Supriano :You know, it must be that one of the biggest users of oil, is war.
Richard Heinberg:Well, yes, that's the terrible irony. One would think, that this would be the most insane way of dealing with the problem of oil production peaking, to impossibly think of. To simply fight for what's left, and use up much of that precious resource, in the process. But, you know, I think the U.S. leaders have painted themselves into a corner. We had the option in the 1970's, to deal with our increasing addiction to imported oil, through efficiency. And, through the funding of research into renewable alternatives. We started down that path, but we didn't get very far. In 1980, of course, it was morning in America. We had regime change in the country and the Carter administration. Which I don't want to suggest the Carter adminisration was doing all the right things. Because, they weren't, by any means. That was, after all, the time that the institution of the Carter Doctrine, which said; hence forth, we will use the U.S. military to defend our access to the oil supplies in the Middle East. Nevertheless, Carter did go on television and tell the American people, that energy resources are ultimately limited. And, that we have a choice to make. Either to become more on them. Or, to change our way of life, and find a way to live with less oil. And, well, we didn't do the latter. We chose, during the 1980's and 1990's, to become more dependent. Our oil consumption increased. And, now we're living with the fact that almost sixty percent of the oil that we use in this country, is imported from elsewhere. And, that dependency is a profound vulnerability.
Sue Supriano : And, I want to tell people. Well, you know we're talking about oil. We're not just talking about cars. We're talking about plastic. I mean just about everything - fertilizer. Just about everything has got some oil in it, these days. Clothes?
Richard Heinberg: Right. Agriculture is one of the most crucial uses of oil. And, natural gas, also. Because, we use natural gas for the production of fertilizer. But, most of the agricultural chemicals, are made from oil. And then, the operation of all of the farm machinery. And then, the transportation of the typical food item on our plates these days; that has traveled 13 to 15 hundred miles to get there. And, of course, those are fossil fueled miles. And, it's not just our transportation to go to the store, or to get to and from work. But, also, how does all of this stuff get to the stores, for us to buy. We are living in a system, that demands long distance, speedy, large scope, transportation of just about everything; in order to maintain our way of life and our economy.
Sue Supriano: Again, I'm taking a long time here to remind listeners, who might have just tuned in. Let them know, that my guest is Richard Heinberg. Whose most recent work is "Powerdown: Options and Actions For a Post Carbon World". And, right now, we're kind of defining the problem. Because, so many people, don't even understand about that. We are going ot get into some solutions, here. And, you can also tune into the next show; where we'll be even more deeper into that. And, I didn't mention that Richard Heinberg teaches at New College of California, in Santa Rosa. And, teaches human ecology. And, I'm thinking just about the connectiveness of everything. I'm wondering, too; pulling all of that oil out of the earth, must have alot of repercussions to the earth itself. And, I don't know; but, that's not exactly human ecology, right? I just think, you step on something, and it's just not there. Boy, and you go through. And, a good effect could be; no more global warming.
Richard Heinberg: Well, I wish I could say that the problem of global oil peak does have, you know, a kind of silver lining. But, I have to tell you; I'm not seeing it at this point. Because, you mentioned global warming. Yes, global warming is a huge, huge problem. Probably larger than most of us realize. But, we are only about halfway through our extraction of the oil that's ultimately going to be pulled out of the ground and burned by human beings. Yes, the rate of extraction is about to peak and decline. But, there's still a trillion barrels of oil there in the ground, that we are likely to pull out and burn, over the course of the next century. And, that's a heck of a lot more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And, there's a strong likelihood that as oil and natural gas become more expensive and scarce; we will turn to coal, to make up the difference. Of course, coal is even dirtier. And, will produce even worse emissions, than oil and natural gas. So, again, I wish I could say there's good news here. But, I don't see that.
Sue Supriano :And, I'm sure as oil gets more and more expensive; the rich will get it, the poor will not. But, the poor will get sick, from the air pollution.
Richard Heinberg:Well, currently we're supporting a global population of over six billion people - 6.4 billion. At the time the industrial revolution started, there were fewer than 1 billion of us. That immense increase in human population, is largely contributing to fossil fuels. Because, we're able to transport resources, from where they're abundant, to whe're they're scarce. And, build cities, where otherwise large numbers of people could not live. I'm thinking now of the Arizona desert, or a place like Southern California, where we put millions of people. The only reason we're able to live there, is because we can truck in, or we can ship in, or pipe in vast quantities of water and food. And, everything else people need to survive. So, when we talk about peak oil, we are talking about; literally, human survival. We are going to have to find a profoundly different way of living on this planet, than we have gotten used to, over the course of the last century. And, that's every single one of us. We have all grown up, in the context of the assumption, that's there's going to be ever more of this stuff; in order to maintain economic growth. And, keep us in the way of life, that we've become accustomed. And, that assumption, is about to come crashing down.
Sue Supriano : Oh, we just saw - well, you were in it. I just have seen the film, called, "The End of Suburbia". Which is a real nice way to educate people. Watching the film, for an hour and fifteen minutes. To educate people about this. Do you know the website? Or how to get "The End Of Suburbia" , Richard?
Richard Heinberg:Well, people can get the dvd from PostCarbon.org. And, also they can buy my books through that website. And, lots of other relevant material, to the subject of peak oil. I think that's an excellent film for people to get an overview of the problem. And, begin to get an idea of what we're going to have to do, in order to respond to it intelligently.
Sue Supriano :Really. And, you just got a real short time to say, you know, why isn't everybody up in arms about this? I mean, since Cheney's even talked about it. Halliburton knows all about it. And, obviously, the same people who head up oil companies, also now in the cabinet. So, how come they're not doing so?
Richard Heinberg:Yeah. Well, this is the most important piece of information, anybody could have at this time of history. But, our politicians are not going to say a word about it. Because, it's not going to win them any votes. And, industry - I mean the bankers, no one is going to say anything about it. Because, it doesn't lead to economic growth. It's exactly the opposite. It's bad news for the stock market. But, we need to know. Because, we need to be prepared. Because, our lives are going to be on the line, as a result of this.
Sue Supriano :I would think that it would be a good thing to be making solar panels. And, I think that they would make money. That there would be a niche, where money could be made.
Richard Heinberg:Well, that's why the oil companies have bought up most of the solar industry, in the last few years. But, maybe in our next program, we can talk more about the energy programs. I'm sure there are many listeners right now, who are sitting there going, why aren't they talking about wind or solar. And, all of the solutions. Well, we need to talk about that. So, let's - that would be a good subject for our next show.
Sue Supriano : Yeah, well, we will. But, in the remaining minutes, just a little information about why not more is done.
Richard Heinberg:Well, we desperately need to be investing, far more in renewable energy alternatives. Particularly, solar and wind. Because, those are ones, that can be grown. We get alot more energy, right now, from hydropower; which is renewable energy. But, we can't dam many more rivers. And, in fact, most of the ecologists that I know, would rather see the existing dams taken out. Rather than more of them being built. But, we can build a lot more wind turbines and portable panels. So, we definitely need to be doing that. But, it's a larger discussion. And, I want to talk about that.
Sue Supriano : And, we will talk about it. And, that's also the name of your book, Richard Heinberg. Is "Powerdown: Options and Actions for A Post Carbon World". And the whole powerdown, is that we can't just continue living how we've lived, oil or not. We just can't continue this way. But, we can certainly make it easier on ourselves, rather than harderon ourselves. So, tune in for the next show. And, thanks so much, Richard Heinberg.
Richard Heinberg:Thank you, Sue.
Sue Supriano :Do you want to give a website of anything?
Richard Heinberg:Yeah. My website is museletter. I have a number of essays posted there. And, also people can contact me. Or, get my books through the website.
Sue Supriano : Thank you, very much for your time. For writing this book. And, we'll talk again soon. My name's Sue Supriano. Thanks for listening. If you're interested in hearing other of my programs, or looking at my website, go to: suesupriano. And, order copies of my shows. Or, just communicate with me. You can send an email at: sue@suesupriano.com. So, the website is suesupriano.com and the email is sue@suesupriano.com.
End of interview
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