Richard Bell, Communications Director for Post Carbon Institute, responds to President Bush's State of the Union Address. The article is followed by the energy sections of the 2006 and 2007 State of the Union Addresses.
If only the world’s glaciers were melting as slowly as the evolution of President Bush’s understanding of climate change!
For anyone concerned about Peak Oil and global warming, Bush’s State of the Union speech Tuesday evening fell far short of establishing a sound program for dealing with the nation’s energy woes or gargantuan carbon emissions. With the exception of a small increase in fuel efficiency standards, the president’s set of recommendations were about producing more energy: more oil, more coal, more solar and wind, and especially more “renewable and alternative fuels.”
The president’s call for 35 billion gallons of “renewable and alternative fuels” by 2017 is worrying for several reasons. As the late Carl Sagan knew, “billions” is a magic word for very large numbers; the US standard measure of oil usage, however, is millions of barrels per day (mb/d). Therefore, Bush’s 35 billion gallons of gasoline substitute translates into only 2.3 mb/d, not a huge number in a world that is using 85.8 mb/d of oil. Worse still, at current rates of US gasoline demand growth, this plan will barely cover the increase in demand by 2017, let alone cause a significant decrease in petroleum required.
The word “alternative” did not get into this phrase by accident. While “renewable” fuels are derived from organic materials, “alternative” fuels include coal-to-liquid fuels whose manufacture could significantly worsen climate change by releasing additional carbon dioxide. As it happens, the coal industry is a major contributor to the president and the Republican Party. Since the president did not mention a desirable ratio between “renewable and alternative” fuels, presumably any problems in reaching the 35 billion gallon goal would be met with coal-to-liquid fuels.
This same alternative fuel goal is a gold mine for the nation’s corn farmers, who currently receive substantial federal subsidies for their product. The continuing shift from feeding people to producing ethanol (roughly 20% of the 2006 U.S. corn crop went to ethanol production) is increasing the price of corn on world markets. Unfortunately, these higher prices for corn are tempting farmers to shift from the current practice of rotating corn with soy to planting corn every year, a change that will further increase soil erosion and could result in shortages of soy. And with world grain reserves at a low ebb, any increase in the price of corn is bad news for people in the world’s poorest, grain-importing nations.
The poor but honest little word “clean” got a rough going-over in the speech. Bush promised “clean” coal, and “clean, safe nuclear power,” with no indication at all that the alleged cleanliness of both of these fuel sources is highly controversial: unproven in the case of coal, and nonexistent in terms of a facility for the long-term storage of radioactive nuclear waste (not to mention the increased risk of nuclear weapons proliferation that accompanies nuclear energy development).
It is true that after six years of denying the existence of climate change, the two words did pass through the president’s lips during the speech. But instead of leading off the energy section of the speech, these words were literally the last two he had to say about energy. The grab bag of technologies he had just mentioned would, he claimed, “help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change.” He provided no further information about how much impact his proposed policies might have on slowing down global warming.
Indeed, this year’s speech was substantively quite similar to last year’s, with one quite noticeable deletion. In 2006, the president said: “We will increase our research … in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen.” Thankfully, in 2007 there was no mention of hydrogen-powered cars or other fanciful hydrogen technologies.
Democrats in the House have already filed legislation dealing with climate change, renewables, and energy efficiency that is well out in front of the president’s timid and inadequate proposals. While significantly better than the president’s program, the Democrats —like the Republicans— remain deeply wedded to market-based technological “solutions” that presuppose a future of endless economic growth.
Increasingly, however, catastrophic global events (polar melting, prolonged droughts, collapsing fisheries) are making decisions for us. The time is ripe for a politician of international stature to step forward who will honestly describe the real challenges we face, and provide leadership towards a truly sustainable world.
Background texts: Energy sections from SOTU for 2007 & 2006
Energy section from 2007 SOTU
It is in our vital interest to diversify America's energy supply -- and the way forward is through technology. We must continue changing the way America generates electric power -- by even greater use of clean coal technology ... solar and wind energy ... and clean, safe nuclear power. We need to press on with battery research for plug-in and hybrid vehicles, and expand the use of clean diesel vehicles and biodiesel fuel. We must continue investing in new methods of producing ethanol -- using everything from wood chips, to grasses, to agricultural wastes.
We have made a lot of progress, thanks to good policies in Washington and the strong response of the market. Now even more dramatic advances are within reach. Tonight, I ask Congress to join me in pursuing a great goal. Let us build on the work we have done and reduce gasoline usage in the United States by 20 percent in the next ten years -- thereby cutting our total imports by the equivalent of three-quarters of all the oil we now import from the Middle East.
To reach this goal, we must increase the supply of alternative fuels, by setting a mandatory Fuels Standard to require 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017 -- this is nearly five times the current target. At the same time, we need to reform and modernize fuel economy standards for cars the way we did for light trucks -- and conserve up to eight and a half billion more gallons of gasoline by 2017.
Achieving these ambitious goals will dramatically reduce our dependence on foreign oil, but will not eliminate it. So as we continue to diversify our fuel supply, we must also step up domestic oil production in environmentally sensitive ways. And to further protect America against severe disruptions to our oil supply, I ask Congress to double the current capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that will enable us to live our lives less dependent on oil. These technologies will help us become better stewards of the environment -- and they will help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change.
Energy section from 2006 SOTU
BUSH: Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world.
The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001, we have spent nearly $10 billion to develop cleaner, cheaper and more reliable alternative energy sources. And we are on the threshold of incredible advances.
So tonight I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative -- a 22 percent increase in clean-energy research at the Department of Energy to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants; revolutionary solar and wind technologies; and clean, safe nuclear energy.
(APPLAUSE)
BUSH: We must also change how we power our automobiles.
We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen.
We will also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn but from wood chips and stalks or switch grass.
Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years.
(APPLAUSE)
BUSH: Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025.
By applying...
(APPLAUSE)
By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum- based economy and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.
