The International Energy Agency (IEA) is not alarmist, but it begins to prepare the public for the disenchanted days ahead: after 2010, the production of countries which are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should begin to decline. This pessimistic forecast will be one of the messages that the agency in charge since 1974 to defend the interests of the consumer countries will launch in its annual report "World Energy Outlook 2005" made public November 7th.
"Non-OPEC" notably count big producers such as Russia, China, the United States, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan or Norway and supply 60 % of the world crude today. " The production of conventional petroleum - except heavy oil and asphalts will reach a peak after 2010, explains Fatih Birol, director of economic studies for IEA. The profile of production for the continuation will depend on the technology, the prices and the investments. "
This renowned expert adds: " if there are enough investments and if prices stay at a correct level, the production can stabilize for a while ", before decreasing. On the other hand, " low prices and insufficient investments - in the investigation and the production will involve a more pronounced decline ", he warns. The main part of the growth in the volume of extraction will thus come from OPEC countries, he concludes. Mainly from the Middle East and Africa, two regions closely studied in coming "World Energy Outlook".
" Like a girlfriend "
" Petrol, is like a girlfriend, you know since the beginning of your relation that she will leave you one day, summarizes Mr Birol. For her not to break your heart, it is better to leave her before she leaves you. " Also he sends a double message to the consumer countries, much firmer than in the annual report Published in autumn, 2004: " save energy, save petrol! And diversify, please. Get out of petrol! "
For Claude Mandil, executive director of the IEA, " there is indeed a problem if we limit ourselves to the conventional petrol ". He reminds us however that the non conventional crude oil (deep offshore oil rig, tar sands of Canada, Heavy oil of Venezuela) offer promising perspectives. " I am not alarmist regarding global resources, he adds, even if we shall be more and more dependent on a more and more reduced number of countries", such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, the boss of the AIE says he is " Alarmist on the climatic change " which is approaching.
The increase of the short-term production will be at the center of OPEC countries Ministers debates on Monday, 19 and Tuesday, September 20th in Vienna. To reassure the industrialized nations, ten members of the cartel (except Iraq, which is not concerned by the quotas) had to decide on an increase of the daily production of 500 000 barrels (at 28,5 millions) or the launch "on demand" on market of an additional 2 million barrels a day, a solution which has the favours of the Kuwaiti president of OPEC, the sheik Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah.
This decision is political at first, because the cartel pumps already widely beyond the official quota without reassuring the markets. The barrel of light sweet crude for an October delivery was negotiated Monday in Asia at US 63.71 dollars. Today, the problem is less in the shortage of crude than in the capacity to refine it (In Europe and United State) which became more tense after the damages caused by hurricane Katrina.
In medium term, the worry lies in the capacity for producing countries to extract more of the black gold. Without an international audit, we don't know the amount of reserves in OPEC countries, but also the amount of money given to invest in exploration-production. The annual report of the cartel, published on September 12th, indicates only that investments have increased in 2004: 7.5% more wells drilled and 18.8% more off-shore and oil rigs in activity compared to year 2003.
Original article printed in Le Monde
